Hybrid: Novotel Hotel, Nadi, Fiji.
The Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) is based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Outlook Forum concept.
The PICOF is co-organised by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network (RCC-N), with technical support provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ), APEC Climate Centre (APCC), Meteo-France, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Pacific Community (SPC) and the University of Hawaii as members of the Pacific RCC-N Node for Long-Range Forecasting in partnership with the Pacific Islands Climate Services (PICS) Panel. The latter ensures the needs of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and their stakeholders are met. The sponsor of PICOF-18 is SPREP CLIMSA. Ongoing BOM, SPREP and SPC support is largely funded by COSPPac.
Additional information on PICOF and the WMO Pacific RCC Network is available via the Pacific Met Desk Website
Overall objective: To discuss and produce objective, user-relevant regional climate and ocean outlook guidance in real time to support Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) NMHSs produce national climate and oceans climate information for their national stakeholders, with the ultimate aim to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season in sectors of critical socioeconomic significance.
Objectives
- Review the climate and oceanic conditions in the western Pacific region for the period November 2025 to April 2026;
- Present and discuss long-term trends and projections for selected climate and ocean variables;
- Present monthly and seasonal climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the Southwest Pacific region for the period May to October 2026;
- Discuss and review confidence/skill associated with May to October 2026 outlooks based on the discussions associated with 1-3.
Expected Outcomes
- Improved understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and prediction specifically for the target monitoring and prediction periods.
- Enhanced understanding of outlook confidence/skill for the period in question;
- A regional PICOF statement containing climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for May to October 2026 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements;
- A PICOF-18 report;
- Content for regional partner and NMHSs climate and ocean bulletins as well as media and social media releases.
Registration
SPREP
Opening and Setting the Scene
Opening prayer
Opening remarks
Meeting objectives
MC – Pacific RCC-N Coordinator, SPREP
Climate Prediction Services Coordinator, SPREP
Official Remarks
- Fiji Met Service Address: Mr. Misa Funaki, Director Fiji Met Service.
- WMO Address: Ms. Ko Barett, WMO Deputy Secretary General
- SPREP Address: Mr. Salesa Nihmei, Director Climate Science and Information Programme
PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair
Morning tea and PICOF-18 official photograph
Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook
Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)
ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate Outlook
i. Atmosphere
Overview of November to April state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outloo
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, ESNZ
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate Outlook
ii. Ocean
Overview of November to April state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, ESNZ
Lunch
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate Outlook
iii. Tropical cyclones
Overview of the TCs over November to April
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, ESNZ
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate Outlook
iv. Impacts
Overview of extreme events and their impacts on the environment and society over the last six months
Kiribati, New Caledonia and Tuvalu
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of November to April Climate Outlook
v. Attribution of impacts
In this session we attempt to associate the extreme events to the major drivers of variability e.g. ENSO
Session 3: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for May to October 2025
Session 3i Atmosphere
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison
ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Session 3: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for May to October 2025
Group work identifying potential impacts of anomalous climate conditions in each subregion
Afternoon tea
Session 3: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for May to October 2025
Session 3ii Ocean
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison
ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Group work identifying potential impacts of anomalous oceanic conditions in each subregion
Objective of the day
Pacific RCC-N Coordinator
Session 3iii
Tropical cyclones
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison
ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Session 4i: Looking Back Long-Term
Surface and subsurface ocean temperature, coral bleaching and marine heat waves
CSIRO, UGCRP, BOM, ESNZ and SPREP
Morning tea
Session 4ii: Looking Forward Long-Term
Surface and subsurface ocean temperature, coral bleaching and marine heat waves
CSIRO, UGCRP, BOM, ESNZ and SPREP
Session 5: Pacific RCC-N website Status
Questions and Discussions
Pacific RCC-N (Chair)
Next steps
Pacific RCC-N (Chair)
Lunch
